U.S. Corn Outlook is for Reduced Supplies, Lower Domestic Use, Smaller Exports, and Tighter Ending Stocks.

Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 1.397 MMT higher based on a lower use forecast for 2022/23, reflecting reductions in corn used for exports, glucose and dextrose, and starch. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 383.81 MMT, down 5.31 MMT from the July projection and if realized, would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 4.447 MT/Acre, a bit lower that previous estimates of 4.50 MT/acre. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago. Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is expected lower at 365.506 MMT. Feed and residual use is lower at 142.875 MMT. Food, Seed Industrial Use is down a bit at 170.56 MMT and Ethanol use remains unchanged at 134.62 MMT Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2022/23. Exports for 2023/24 are cut 52.07 MMT and with supply declining more than use, ending stocks are also lower at 55.93 MMT.

Foreign corn production (other than US) is down, with cuts to the EU (down to 59.70 MMT from earlier estimate of 63.40 MMT), China (277 MMT from an earliest estimates of 280 MMT),  and Russia (14.60 MMT against earlier estimate of 16.30 MMT) partially offset by increases for Ukraine (27.5 MMT against earlier estimate of 25 MMT)  and Canada (15.3 MMT against 15 MMT earlier).

EU corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield. The largest declines are for Hungary, Romania, Germany, and Italy. China corn production is reduced as excessive wetness in key producing provinces in Northeast China and on the North China Plain reduces yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is higher with increases to both area and yield as timely rainfall and a lack of extreme heat during July boost yield expectations. Russia corn production is reduced based on lower area.

Overall world corn production is estimated at 1,213.50 MMT, down from earlier estimates of 1,224.47 MMT (World production less China is estimated at 936.5 MMT). World ending stocks are estimated at 311.05 MMT, less China 109.75 MMT.

Foreign barley production is cut on declines for the EU, Canada, and Russia. Barley exports are cut for Canada and the EU. Barley imports are raised for the EU but lowered for China and Iran.

USGC Weekly Price Report for week ended 11 Aug 2023

World corn prices were down as trade looks as US weather data. The crop condition on 13th Aug  was also an improvement.

Corn Silking 96%, five year average 96%; Corn Dough stage 65%, Five year average 63%; Corn dented 18%, five year average 18%. Good to excellent condition 59%, 2% improvement over previous week and 2% over previous year as well.

US corn prices on CBOT were  down over a 2 week period

Sep USD 186.76/MT; Dec USD 191.79/MT and Mar 2024 USD 197.31/MT

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Sep’23 – Feb’24 indicated at USD 216-232/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 249-264/MT. US Corn #3 USD 245-255/MT (Nov).

Other origin prices were as under (Sep-Nov’)

Argentina USD 210-225/MT; Brazil USD 220-225/MT (Oct); FOB Ukraine USD 190-195/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 245-254/MT (Sep-Nov),

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 235-238/MT; Argentina USD 245-250/MT; Black Sea USD 190-200/MT; Australia USD 255-260/MT. (China has removed the duty on Australian Barley)

DDGS prices on FOB basis US Gulf were indicated at USD 268/MT, (Sep-Nov); FOB PNW at USD 271-273/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 317-323/MT; Thailand  324-337/MT; Myanmar USD 313-315/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 640/MT and CGF at USD 220/MT

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady, US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 35/MT (down) and Ukraine USD 56/MT.

WASDE REPORT 11 Aug 2023 and USGC weekly report