Market Projections https://benisonmedia.com/category/market-projections/ Magazine for Grain and Feed Industry Wed, 29 Nov 2023 06:03:17 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.3 Rabobank Predicts Recovery in Global Poultry as Ongoing Challenges Start To Ease https://benisonmedia.com/rabobank-predicts-recovery-in-global-poultry-as-ongoing-challenges-start-to-ease/ Wed, 29 Nov 2023 06:03:17 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=13111 Global poultry market growth in 2023 is expected to be slow, reaching only 1%. But global poultry markets are well positioned to gradually improve in Q4 2023 and early 2024, although the level will depend on how well-balanced they are. After a period of slow poultry consumption growth due to a weak global economy and […]

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]]> Global poultry market growth in 2023 is expected to be slow, reaching only 1%. But global poultry markets are well positioned to gradually improve in Q4 2023 and early 2024, although the level will depend on how well-balanced they are. After a period of slow poultry consumption growth due to a weak global economy and rising prices resulting from cost increases, global demand has room for some recovery, driven mainly by lower feed costs and, therefore, lower chicken prices. Markets will stay highly price-driven, but poultry should be able to benefit from its relatively competitive pricing in many markets compared to other proteins like beef, pork, and alternative proteins.

Report summary
Improving market conditions are expected in the US, Mexico, Japan, South Africa, Indonesia, and China. However, the context in Indonesia and China will be fragile. The EU market has been strong, but high levels of fresh chicken imports are creating pressure. Brazil and Thailand face more challenging conditions and will need more supply growth discipline in oversupplied domestic markets.

Global trade is expected to stay strong in 2H 2023 after reaching a record-high 7.2m metric tons in the first half of the year, driven entirely by increased trade of raw poultry meat, while trade in processed poultry meat dropped sharply. Amid more price-driven markets, consumers’ product preferences are changing, and this trend is expected to continue in 2H 2023 and into 2024. Brazil is expected to benefit the most as a cost-price leader in raw chicken meat, while Thailand and China need to refocus on raw chicken trade, which will challenge these exporters’ value position.

Government interventions driven by food security, geopolitics, and sustainability will continue to impact markets and create volatility in global trade. Avian influenza (AI) will remain an important factor that could suddenly impact global markets, from both a local supply perspective and a trade perspective, especially if Brazil’s southern states are hit.
Producers should maintain focus on the operational side. Although we believe feed prices will drop slightly, operational costs are still at historic highs, and risks of further volatility exist in grain prices (due to El Niño) and in energy prices and availability. Ongoing leadership in terms of costs and procurement will remain key. Additionally, producers should fine-tune supply to changes in poultry demand related to products, distribution, and market development.

Source: Rabobank

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report for week ended 08 Sep 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-for-week-ended-08-sep-2023/ Tue, 12 Sep 2023 05:24:59 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12918 This week is the WASDE report week (12 Sep 2023) and the trade will be looking at the report very closely . Prices in lats one week are up on CBOT Sep USD 184.39/MT; Dec USD 190.38/MT; Mar 2024 USD 196.05/MT and May USD 199.35/MT FOB prices US Gulf for the period Oct’23 indicated at […]

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]]> This week is the WASDE report week (12 Sep 2023) and the trade will be looking at the report very closely . Prices in lats one week are up on CBOT

Sep USD 184.39/MT; Dec USD 190.38/MT; Mar 2024 USD 196.05/MT and May USD 199.35/MT

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Oct’23 indicated at USD 233/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 241/MT. US

Other origin prices were as under (Sep)

Argentina USD 217/MT; Brazil USD 224/MT (Oct); FOB Ukraine USD 186/MT. (There is no grain deal on the horizon and it will be difficult to move the commodities out of Ukraine). Corn harvest has started in Ukraine. Brazil’s food agency (Conab) increased its estimate for the country’s total corn output to 131.8 MMT in 2022/23. Argentina’s 2022/23 corn harvest has concluded with a total production of 34 million mt, compared with the 55 million mt estimated

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 243/MT; Argentina USD 230/MT; Black Sea USD 165/MT; Australia USD 255/MT.

DDGS prices on FOB basis US Gulf were indicated at USD 265/MT,

Mississippi river draft remains a concern, keeping barge prices high.

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL)

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]]> U.S. Corn Outlook is for Reduced Supplies, Lower Domestic Use, Smaller Exports, and Tighter Ending Stocks. https://benisonmedia.com/u-s-corn-outlook-is-for-reduced-supplies-lower-domestic-use-smaller-exports-and-tighter-ending-stocks/ Wed, 16 Aug 2023 11:55:53 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12784 Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 1.397 MMT higher based on a lower use forecast for 2022/23, reflecting reductions in corn used for exports, glucose and dextrose, and starch. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 383.81 MMT, down 5.31 MMT from the July projection and if realized, would be the second highest on record […]

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]]> Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 1.397 MMT higher based on a lower use forecast for 2022/23, reflecting reductions in corn used for exports, glucose and dextrose, and starch. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 383.81 MMT, down 5.31 MMT from the July projection and if realized, would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 4.447 MT/Acre, a bit lower that previous estimates of 4.50 MT/acre. Today’s Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing States, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago. Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is expected lower at 365.506 MMT. Feed and residual use is lower at 142.875 MMT. Food, Seed Industrial Use is down a bit at 170.56 MMT and Ethanol use remains unchanged at 134.62 MMT Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2022/23. Exports for 2023/24 are cut 52.07 MMT and with supply declining more than use, ending stocks are also lower at 55.93 MMT.

Foreign corn production (other than US) is down, with cuts to the EU (down to 59.70 MMT from earlier estimate of 63.40 MMT), China (277 MMT from an earliest estimates of 280 MMT),  and Russia (14.60 MMT against earlier estimate of 16.30 MMT) partially offset by increases for Ukraine (27.5 MMT against earlier estimate of 25 MMT)  and Canada (15.3 MMT against 15 MMT earlier).

EU corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield. The largest declines are for Hungary, Romania, Germany, and Italy. China corn production is reduced as excessive wetness in key producing provinces in Northeast China and on the North China Plain reduces yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is higher with increases to both area and yield as timely rainfall and a lack of extreme heat during July boost yield expectations. Russia corn production is reduced based on lower area.

Overall world corn production is estimated at 1,213.50 MMT, down from earlier estimates of 1,224.47 MMT (World production less China is estimated at 936.5 MMT). World ending stocks are estimated at 311.05 MMT, less China 109.75 MMT.

Foreign barley production is cut on declines for the EU, Canada, and Russia. Barley exports are cut for Canada and the EU. Barley imports are raised for the EU but lowered for China and Iran.

USGC Weekly Price Report for week ended 11 Aug 2023

World corn prices were down as trade looks as US weather data. The crop condition on 13th Aug  was also an improvement.

Corn Silking 96%, five year average 96%; Corn Dough stage 65%, Five year average 63%; Corn dented 18%, five year average 18%. Good to excellent condition 59%, 2% improvement over previous week and 2% over previous year as well.

US corn prices on CBOT were  down over a 2 week period

Sep USD 186.76/MT; Dec USD 191.79/MT and Mar 2024 USD 197.31/MT

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Sep’23 – Feb’24 indicated at USD 216-232/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 249-264/MT. US Corn #3 USD 245-255/MT (Nov).

Other origin prices were as under (Sep-Nov’)

Argentina USD 210-225/MT; Brazil USD 220-225/MT (Oct); FOB Ukraine USD 190-195/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 245-254/MT (Sep-Nov),

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 235-238/MT; Argentina USD 245-250/MT; Black Sea USD 190-200/MT; Australia USD 255-260/MT. (China has removed the duty on Australian Barley)

DDGS prices on FOB basis US Gulf were indicated at USD 268/MT, (Sep-Nov); FOB PNW at USD 271-273/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 317-323/MT; Thailand  324-337/MT; Myanmar USD 313-315/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 640/MT and CGF at USD 220/MT

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady, US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 35/MT (down) and Ukraine USD 56/MT.

WASDE REPORT 11 Aug 2023 and USGC weekly report

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report for week ended 28 Jul 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-for-week-ended-28-jul-2023/ Mon, 31 Jul 2023 08:24:42 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12751 World corn prices were down as trade looks as US weather data. The cup condition on 23rd July was also an improvement. Next 7 days forecast is for good rains in the corn belt. Corn production in South Africa is expected at 16.3 MMT. US corn prices on CBOT were up by USD 8-9/MT: Sep […]

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]]> World corn prices were down as trade looks as US weather data. The cup condition on 23rd July was also an improvement. Next 7 days forecast is for good rains in the corn belt.

Corn production in South Africa is expected at 16.3 MMT.

US corn prices on CBOT were up by USD 8-9/MT:

Sep USD 205.10/MT; Dec USD 208.72/MT and Mar 2024 USD 213.21/MT

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Aug’23 – Jan’24 indicated at USD 242-253/MT, same as last week; FOB PNW indicated at USD 276-283/MT. US Corn #3 USD 265-270/MT (Oct).

Other origin prices were as under (Aug-Oct’)

Argentina USD 215-220/MT (Oct); Brazil USD 230-235/MT (Oct); FOB Ukraine USD 190-195/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 271-273/MT (Aug-Oct),

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 250-255/MT; Argentina USD 260-265/MT; Black Sea USD 200-210/MT; Australia USD 235-240/MT. Barley production for EU is expected at 4.74 MMT, down 3% and spring barley yields down 14%.

DDGS prices on FOB basis were up a bit, but not majorly. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 284-278/MT, (Aug-Oct); FOB PNW at USD 293-295/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 318-324/MT; Thailand  325-332/MT; Myanmar USD 314-323/MT. With SBM prices continuing to move up, it is priced at USD 11.14 per % protein, while DDGS is priced at USD 9.13 per % protein with additional energy via oil. (The prices are on FOB basis) US Corn DDGS provides cheaper protein with additional energy via oil.  Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 650/MT and CGF at USD 250/MT

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 35/MT (down) and Ukraine USD 56/MT.

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL)

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 30 Jun 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-30-jun-2023/ Mon, 03 Jul 2023 08:19:09 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12592 US weather has been good, which did lead to drop in corn prices. Also the acreage report that was out on 30th June suggests that corn planted area in 2023 is much higher and is estimated at 94.1 million acres (38 mill hac), up 6 percent or 5.52 million acres (2 mill hac) from last […]

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]]> US weather has been good, which did lead to drop in corn prices. Also the acreage report that was out on 30th June suggests that corn planted area in 2023 is much higher and is estimated at 94.1 million acres (38 mill hac), up 6 percent or 5.52 million acres (2 mill hac) from last year. This represents the third highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 43 of the 48 estimating States.

Area harvested for grain, at 86.3 million acres (35 million hac), is up 9 percent from last year, which would mean an increased production of corn in 2023. Because of the weather and estimated higher area under corn, old corn crop prices were down by USD 30/MT and new crop by USD 37/MT.

US corn prices on CBOT were as under:

Jul USD 218.25/MT; Sep USD 192.27/MT and Dec USD 194.71/MT.

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Jul-Dec’23 indicated at USD 249-241/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 281-266/MT. US Corn #3 USD 270-255/MT (Oct).

As on Jun 26, 2023, 4% of the US corn is in silking stage (Same as 5 year average). The good to excellent condition is at 46%, which was 55% in the earlier week.

Other origin prices were as under (Jun-Aug’23)

Argentina USD 215-205/MT (Oct); Brazil USD 215-210/MT (Oct); FOB Ukraine USD 200-210/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 294-261/MT (Jul-Sep)

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 225-230/MT; Argentina USD 240-245/MT; Black Sea USD 180-185/MT; Australia USD 230-235/MT.

DDGS prices on FOB basis are down as corn prices moved down  in the week. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 276-277/MT, (Jul-Sep); FOB PNW at USD 280-277/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 316/MT; Thailand  320/MT; Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated up at USD 670/MT and CGF at USD 225MT

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 47/MT and Ukraine USD 60/MT.

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCI

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 23 Jun 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-23-jun-2023/ Sat, 01 Jul 2023 12:14:57 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12588 US has been experiencing weather related issues, which is leading to some price volatility in the market. Early in the week, prices were up as drought conditions were prevailing and by end of the week corn belt did get some rains, which lead to a downtrend in prices. Prices are down by almost USD 3/Mt […]

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]]> US has been experiencing weather related issues, which is leading to some price volatility in the market. Early in the week, prices were up as drought conditions were prevailing and by end of the week corn belt did get some rains, which lead to a downtrend in prices. Prices are down by almost USD 3/Mt against last week’s close.

US corn prices on CBOT were as under:

Jul USD 248.25/MT; Sep USD 230.14/MT and Dec USD 231.48/MT.

FOB prices US Gulf for the period Jul-Dec’23 indicated at USD 281-279/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 307-305/MT. US Corn #3 USD 295-290/MT (Sep).

As on Jun 18, 2023, 96% of the US corn has emerged as against 94% for the five year average (218-2022). The good to excellent condition is at 55%, which was 61% in the earlier week (because of less rains) and 70% previous year.

Other origin prices were as under (Jun-Aug’23)

Argentina USD 220-225/MT (Sep); Brazil USD 225-230/MT (Sep); FOB Ukraine USD 205-190/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 305-296/MT (Jul-Sep)

Barley prices were as under:

France USD 240-245/MT; Argentina USD 240-245/MT; Black Sea USD 175-180/MT; Australia USD 230-235/MT.

DDGS prices on FOB basis are up as corn prices moved up in the week. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 281-279/MT, (Jul-Sep); FOB PNW at USD 298-297/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 331/MT; Thailand  335/MT; Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated up at USD 680/MT and CGF at USD 230/MT

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady, US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 47/MT and Ukraine USD 56/MT.

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL)

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 31 Mar 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-31-mar-2023/ Mon, 03 Apr 2023 10:34:59 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12154 USGC Weekly Price Report 31 Mar 2023 The prospective planting report for 2023 was released on 31 Mar 2023. Corn area expected to be up 4% at 92 million acres against 2022.  Soybean area is expected to be up slightly at 87.5 million acres. Trade expects China to continue buying corn continues to buy corn […]

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 31 Mar 2023

The prospective planting report for 2023 was released on 31 Mar 2023. Corn area expected to be up 4% at 92 million acres against 2022.  Soybean area is expected to be up slightly at 87.5 million acres.

Trade expects China to continue buying corn continues to buy corn from US, which could reduce corn stocks. The grain stock report released on 31 Mar 2023, also put stocks at 187.96 MMT as on Mar 01, 2023, down 5% against 1 Mar 2022. 104.39 MMT is stored on the farms, up 1% against last year. Off farm stocks are at 83.56 MMT are down 10% from year ago.

Due to lower stock expected, prices of corn have risen, even though are expected to be up. May USD 259.98/MT; Jul USD 250.37/MT and Sep USD 227.23/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 298-278/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 321-301/MT. US Corn #3 USD 320-300/MT (Aug).

Other origin prices were as under (Apr-Jun’23)

Argentina USD 285-245MT (Jul); Brazil USD 295-245/MT (Jul); FOB Ukraine USD 240-245/MT.

Brazil corn production (Safrina) is expected at 97.2 MMT due to weather related issues and Argentina corn crop is also expected to be down. EU overall corn production is expected at 62.3 MMT (recovery from last year’s 52.5 MMT)

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 348-338/MT (Apr-Jun)

Barley prices were as under

France USD 292-295/MT; Argentina USD 290-295/MT; Black Sea USD 255-260/MT; Australia USD 265-270/MT.

DDGS prices are mixed, up at most due to higher SBM prices. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 338-334/MT, (Apr-Jun); FOB PNW at USD 348-345/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 394-391/MT; Thailand  394-392/MT; Myanmar USD 385-384/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 805/MT and CGF at USD 300/MT.

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 49/MT and Ukraine USD 54/MT).

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL)

 

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 24 Mar 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-24-mar-2023/ Thu, 30 Mar 2023 11:02:07 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12148 USGC Weekly Price Report 24 Mar 2023 As China continues to buy corn from US, leading to some price rise. May USD 253.13/MT; Jul USD 245.26/MT and Sep USD 224.08/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 290-273/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 312-296/MT. […]

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 24 Mar 2023

As China continues to buy corn from US, leading to some price rise. May USD 253.13/MT; Jul USD 245.26/MT and Sep USD 224.08/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 290-273/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 312-296/MT. US Corn #3 USD 310-300/MT (Jul).

As per the International Grains Council (IGC), the outlook for corn in 2022/23 was for a lower production and a decline in world food, feed and industrial uptake was expected to decline.
The outlook for 2023/24 is for a higher corn production by 5% y/y and reach 1,202 MMT and also the use is likely to rebound, due to demand in Asia.
Argentina is expected to produce 36 MMT despite the drought and Ukraine production  as per reports is expected to be 21.7 MMT in 2023, down from 25.6 MMT produced in 2022.

India has been in news lately due to the weather conditions that could effect wheat crop across the wheat growing areas. While sudden high temperatures in the start of the month may not have affected the crop so much, as unseasonal rains and hail in some part of the wheat growing areas.

Other origin prices were as under (Apr-Jun’23)

Argentina USD 285-260MT (Jul); Brazil USD 290-265/MT (Jul); FOB Ukraine USD 255-260/MT.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 341-331/MT (Apr-Jun)

World Sorghum production in 2022/23 is forecast at 58.2 MMT and supplies at 62.6 MMT. Total use is expected at 59 MMT, of which 31 MMT at food and 21.2 MMt is feed, industrial at 5 MMT and ending stocks at 3.6 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is expected to rebound to 63.1 MMT and total supplies at 66.8 MMT, of which food use is expected at 31.2 MMT; Feed 24.9 MMT and industrial at 5 MMT. Ending stocks for 2023/254 are expected at 3.8 MMT

Barley prices were as under

France USD 280-283/MT; Argentina USD 295-300/MT; Black Sea USD 255-260/MT; Australia USD 265-270/MT. Barley purchases continue and Jordan purchased 110,000 MT of barley for first week of August delivery.

As per IGC, 2022/23, world barley production is forecast at 154 MMT and total supply at 178 MMT, of which food use at 7 MMT; Feed at 105 MMT and 28 MMT as Industrial. Closing stocks at 27 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is projected at 145 MMT and total use at 148 MMT, of which food 7 MMT; Feed at 103 MMT and Industrial at 28 MMT.
Ending stocks are projected at 25 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is expected to be down in Australia at 9.9 MMT From 14.1 in 2022/23; Ukraine 4.8 MMT, down from 6.6 MMT in 2022/23. Turkey 7.5 MMT, down from 8.5 MMT in 2022/23; Russia 19.8 MMT from 22.1 MMT in 2022/23.

DDGS prices are down as SBM prices are down. Ethanol plants will be going in for the maintenance and that is bound to reduce supplies for some time. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 339-333/MT, (Apr-Jun); FOB PNW at USD 339-228/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 392/MT; Thailand  404-403/MT; Myanmar USD 388-387/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 795/MT and CGF at USD 295/MT.

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 47/MT and Ukraine USD 54/MT).

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL )

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]]> Mycotxin Survey https://benisonmedia.com/mycotxin-survey/ Fri, 24 Mar 2023 11:06:33 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12091 By Cargill India

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]]> By Cargill India

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]]> USGC Weekly Price Report 17 Mar 2023 https://benisonmedia.com/usgc-weekly-price-report-17-mar-2023/ Tue, 21 Mar 2023 06:44:32 +0000 https://benisonmedia.com/?p=12056 A sudden spike in corn prices is a result of China buying US corn wheat prices being up. May USD 249.67/MT; Jul USD 243.13/MT and Sep USD 223.84/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 286-276/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 312-301/MT. US Corn […]

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]]> A sudden spike in corn prices is a result of China buying US corn wheat prices being up. May USD 249.67/MT; Jul USD 243.13/MT and Sep USD 223.84/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 286-276/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 312-301/MT. US Corn #3 UDS 305-300/MT (Jul), up USD 5/MT.

While reports suggest that La Nina has officially ended, but 2023 will be an El Nino year, as reported by World Meteorological Organization, and could effect harvest in Southern Hemisphere. India has already seen some abnormal weather events in Feb-Mar 2023 – colder than normal seasons, unseasonal rains and higher summer temperatures are predicted.

Other origin prices were as under (Apr-Jun’23)

Argentina USD 290-260MT (Jul); Brazil USD 290-265/MT (Jul); FOB Ukraine USD 245-250/MT.

Argentina corn production, new estimates 36 MMT crop. US shifts corn purchases to US and Ukraine (Out from Brazil). Domestic use of Brazil corn for fuel ethanol as projected is likely to be higher and Brazil could produce 6 billion liters of ethanol from corn in 2023 and the market share will be up at 19%.

Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 340-331/MT (Apr-Jun)

Barley prices were as under

France USD 288-291/MT; Argentina USD 320-325/MT; Black Sea USD 265-270/MT; Australia USD 275-285/MT. Barley purchases continue in MEA region, with Jordan buying another 50,000 MT for sep delivery.

DDGS prices remain steady and up, due to strong domestic demand and higher corn prices. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 346-340/MT, (Apr-Jun); FOB PNW at USD 360-357/MT.

US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 389-387/MT; Thailand  402-398/MT; Myanmar USD 385-383/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 795/MT and CGF at USD 295/MT. Some protein prices, including CGM were down as SBM prices were down.

Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 47/MT and Ukraine USD 54/MT).

Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL )

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